Red Sox acquire RHP Andrew Bailey straight up for OF Josh Reddick
The Boston Red Sox upgraded its bullpen the cheap way, sending a replacement level, platoon-type outfielder for a two-time all star closer.
The Red Sox acquired closer Andrew Bailey from the Oakland A’s for outfielder Josh Reddick, straight up. Suddenly, one of the glaring weaknesses that led to the biggest September collapse in baseball history has been converted into a strength.
Bailey, 27, is under club control until 2015, and won’t be arbitration eligible until the end of the 2012 season. He satisfies Boston’s desire to improve without busting the salary cap. The 2009 rookie of the year is set to make about $500,000, an $11 million discount from Jonathan Papelbon, who signed as a free agent with the Philadelphia Phillies in November.
While he has a reputation for being injury-prone, he threw 41 innings last year, Bailey is regarded as a semi-elite closer who could get better, if only he could get healthier. He posted ERA / WHIP / adjusted ERA of 3.24 / 1.104 / 126, all career highs. In his three-year career, he has lines of 2.07 / 0.954 / 226, and could be that pitcher again, if he stays healthy.
It didn’t help that Oakland threw him out there for 83.1 innings in his rookie season, and injuries limited him to about 80 innings the past two seasons. If there’s a team that can keep him healthy, however, it’s Boston. The Red Sox took great care of Papelbon, never letting him go beyond 70 innings in his six years in Boston. Playing for a team with a great offense will also help him stay healthy, because he won’t be used as much as he was used in Oakland.
But there’s some good news, too. His 8.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 is around his career averages, and his stuff appears to have not diminished. He’s also entering his peak years, cost-effective, and has a slightly higher career groundball rate than Jonathan Papelbon. Both are considered fly ball pitchers, however, with Bailey not as hard of a thrower as Papelbon, although the difference is minimal. He does rely on a sick cut fastball and carves out a curveball from time to time.
His peripherals are also comparable to Papelbon’s, with a career 2.74 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. What’s concerning is that his fly ball to home run ratio isn’t much of an improvement from Papelbon, despite playing in a pitcher friendly park.
A relief pitcher’s performance is hard to predict, and Bailey has been on a downslide the past three seasons. But if you’re gambling on a reliever being a closer, Bailey and those like him, including Sergio Santos of the Toronto Blue Jays, are smart bets.
He’s cost-effective, has got above average strikeout rates, and throws really, really hard.
That’s all a team can ask for.
